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THE COMMONS

SECTION 19

ISSUE 001

PROJECTIONpolicy1-3yconfidence / medium

Compute Diplomacy Replaces Chip Diplomacy

Projection: international bargaining will expand from chip access to electricity, data-center siting, cloud credits, model access, talent, and evaluation support. Durable agreements will bundle capacity with local skills and public-benefit obligations rather than export a dependency that disappears when subsidies end.

Why this idea is here

What the evidence establishes.

The AI Index analyzes AI sovereignty and global capability; IEA documents the tight coupling between compute expansion, power, and grid infrastructure.

Source ledger

Read the sources.

  1. S01
    Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2026

    independent research report / dated 2026 / retrieved 2026-07-09

  2. S02
    Key Questions on Energy and AI

    IEA report / dated 2026-04 / retrieved 2026-07-09

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