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THE TEST

SECTION 07

ISSUE 001

PROJECTIONproduct1-3yconfidence / medium

Audit Trails Need Counterfactual Replay

Projection: Auditors will need controlled replay environments that rerun an agent decision under alternate permissions, inputs, and policies to test whether controls actually mattered. A signed action record supplies evidence; the replay room interrogates it. Adoption is visible when audit findings reproduce failures rather than merely confirming that a log exists.

Why this idea is here

What the evidence establishes.

The cited captures document agent identity, inventory, and security concerns. They do not establish counterfactual replay environments; the adoption test is whether auditors reproduce failures by varying permissions, inputs, and policies against recorded actions.

Source ledger

Read the sources.

  1. S01
    Concept Paper on Identity and Authority of Software Agents

    government standardization / published 2026-02-05 / retrieved 2026-07-09

  2. S02
    State of Agentic AI Security and Governance 2.01

    industry standard / published 2026-06-01 / retrieved 2026-07-09

  3. S03
    Gartner Identifies Six Steps to Manage AI Agent Sprawl

    analyst release / published 2026-04-28 / retrieved 2026-07-09

  4. S04
    Cursor taps security partner in push to secure vibe coding

    independent reporting / published 2026-04-21 / retrieved 2026-07-09

  5. S05
    EU plan on advanced AI and cybersecurity

    government policy / published 2026-07-07 / retrieved 2026-07-09

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