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THE HORIZON

SECTION 20

ISSUE 001

PROJECTIONhypothesis1-3yconfidence / medium

Provenance Shifts Trust, Not Detection

Hypothesis: signed provenance will improve source-sensitive trust more than synthetic-media detection. In blinded cross-cultural trials, compare trust decisions and classification accuracy under provenance, labels, and no signal. Reject the thesis if detection gains are equal or larger. The experiment separates knowing an asset’s history from guessing how it was made.

Why this idea is here

What the evidence establishes.

C2PA provides verifiable provenance while NIST treats provenance and detection as distinct, complementary technical approaches.

Source ledger

Read the sources.

  1. S01
    C2PA Technical Specification 2.4

    current technical standard / published 2026-04-01 / retrieved 2026-07-10

  2. S02
    Reducing Risks Posed by Synthetic Content

    NIST technical report / dated 2024 / retrieved 2026-07-09

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