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THE HORIZON

SECTION 20

ISSUE 001

PROJECTIONhypothesis6-12mconfidence / medium

Friction Improves Delayed Retention

Hypothesis: making a learner attempt an answer before AI help will improve unaided retention by at least ten percent after four weeks. Run randomized trials across subjects, track frustration and dropout, and reject the claim if the interval excludes the effect. Useful friction should survive measurement, not merely sound pedagogically virtuous.

Why this idea is here

What the evidence establishes.

Existing randomized studies identify both structured-tutor gains and cognitive-crutch risks, providing a basis for a stronger preregistered test.

Source ledger

Read the sources.

  1. S01
    Enhancing School Students’ Self-Regulated Learning Through Generative AI Support

    peer-reviewed randomized trial / dated 2026 / retrieved 2026-07-09

  2. S02
    ChatGPT as a Cognitive Crutch: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

    peer-reviewed randomized trial / dated 2025 / retrieved 2026-07-09

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